Monday, July 2, 2007

Who's next?

Rumblings of another hedge fund having trouble similar to those Bear Stearns funds.....who is it?

My first instinct is to guess one of the funds that scooped up floundering subprime lenders at a "bargain" price and is now realizing it's great acquisition won't be making them any money soon. Say, for example, Farallon. Bought a ton of LEND shares in December. Then rescued LEND with a loan so they wouldn't have to book the loss on those shares, or could put it off until they were better hedged, or somethin. Then they conspire with another hedgie to bail out LEND completely. Now both of these weasels have got to be sitting on tons of losses as tons of the subprime borrowers in SoCal appear to be in the process of barfing back their loans big time. Or do they? These guys from Farallon look way too smart to do something that appears this dumb on the outside to me....but then again those guys from LTCM were geniuses too. So, for now, until I can find some other hedgie with confirmed CDO exposure, Farallon is the guess, since outward appearances suggest that when they rescued Accredited they were simply doubling down on a bad bet.

Who the f*ck knows. My money is actually on the powers that be obfuscating things enough so everything appears fine for another few months....

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